Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 3.206652 3.848913 4.567862 5.429530 6.431254 7.556053 8.911506
2025-06-29 2.216797 3.010894 3.996584 5.298724 6.960926 8.997816 11.666965
2025-07-06 1.642531 2.478731 3.610729 5.230343 7.458508 10.382284 14.468144
2025-07-13 1.376724 2.269376 3.567685 5.549445 8.443186 12.449022 18.331314
2025-07-20 1.148144 2.051502 3.453288 5.719523 9.205431 14.258550 21.998029
2025-07-27 0.998592 1.918130 3.429440 5.998632 10.131963 16.363400 26.252663
2025-08-03 0.830114 1.713550 3.250114 5.992939 10.599804 17.808668 29.637487
2025-08-10 0.664092 1.474989 2.968089 5.765725 10.667365 18.619703 32.094166
2025-08-17 0.536128 1.278910 2.723890 5.559289 10.728494 19.401952 34.540522
2025-08-24 0.456447 1.162172 2.605000 5.555301 11.126092 20.752668 37.992942
2025-08-31 0.392700 1.064977 2.506458 5.571438 11.552538 22.175252 41.657604
2025-09-07 0.332791 0.962276 2.378291 5.508566 11.818752 23.330438 44.937215
2025-09-14 0.264829 0.824500 2.154219 5.225503 11.645291 23.709551 46.936565
2025-09-21 0.225067 0.748771 2.054932 5.190202 11.953444 24.992302 50.648222
2025-09-28 0.191535 0.680812 1.961030 5.151784 12.247783 26.268386 54.435697
2025-10-05 0.181112 0.677308 2.023824 5.476256 13.331189 29.137095 61.382805
2025-10-12 0.164398 0.650109 2.021605 5.647468 14.101302 31.446925 67.416555
2025-10-19 0.153788 0.639691 2.061554 5.924509 15.128117 34.338418 74.748759
2025-10-26 0.133814 0.591911 1.991303 5.919201 15.520957 35.971654 79.720552
2025-11-02 0.109786 0.521635 1.843581 5.694555 15.385518 36.500315 82.526502
2025-11-09 0.090334 0.461235 1.711782 5.490399 15.272359 37.059601 85.419530
2025-11-16 0.078846 0.428332 1.657141 5.486465 15.637652 38.665384 90.551845
2025-11-23 0.069315 0.400198 1.612015 5.502429 16.052417 40.406021 96.066665